Monarchy vs a Corrupt Republic : Part 1

 

The following is part one of a speech is was presented by yours truly at a town hall meeting discussing corruption in Jamaica and how it should affect our view of a republic.

“I declare before you all that my whole life whether it be long or short shall be devoted to your service and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong”

These words were spoken by the then Princess Elizabeth (who later became Queen Elizabeth II) on the occasion of her 21^st birthday.

It would be hard-pressed to hear any president of any republic legitimately make a similar pledge because this might be indicative of his ambition to rule for life, such a notion which is normal and expected of a monarch would be alarming for a president since it would go against the very idea of what a president is meant to be which is a temporary guardian of the highest office of the state. Indeed, during the Trump years, some in the US media who were hostile to him kept referring to him as the “occupant of the White House”. In a way they were correct, but this is not limited to Trump but is in fact applicable to all US presidents ever since George Washington and that is exactly the point of what a president is supposed to be.

A key argument used by republicans is that a republic is a “modern” form of government while monarchies belong only in the past or in fairy tales. This of course is misleading as the truth is republics are quite old, going all the way back to classical Greece. If anything, a proper historical understanding only proves that monarchies are a longer lasting form of state. For instance, When Jamaica was captured by England in 1655, England for the first and only time in its history was a republic . But a mere 5 years later, the republican experiment was ended lasting only 11 years in total. Clearly republicanism didn’t work out then. But I have yet to have anyone to prove to me that if the republic did last then colonialism or slavery would not have happened. In fact, the history not only of Cromwell’s republic but also of Revolutionary France, pre-civil war United States and the numerous communists regimes of the 20th century, all prove that a republican form of government does not mean freedom for all. What is my point exactly? To downplay slavery or colonialism? Not at all, people are flawed in every age and the idea that a republican form of government will somehow wipe the slate clean is absolute nonsense. 

Many republics claim virtue as an exclusive right but in the same vein they also claim an exclusive hold on democracy. One does not need to look very far to see that for the lie that it is.  Why mention this? An important part of integrity is the ability to tell the truth and the reality is that many republics that give lip service to democracy are hardly democracies. Just take one look at the democracy index, at the very top of this list is  Norway, followed by New Zealand, Iceland, Sweden and Denmark (note that of the countries I just mentioned only Iceland is a republic). Compare that with the very bottom of this list i.e. the least democratic countries. Well there is Afghanistan (for obvious reasons) followed by North Korea, Myanmar and Central African Republic, all republics of some kind.

But in addition to this even in cases where republics are democratic, the element of dishonesty remains. This is more so in parliamentary republic than a presidential one. In a presidential republic, the president is truly a representative of the people as he is elected by the people and whoever wins the overall national popular vote wins the election (an exception to this is the US where the election is determine by not by national vote but by state vote and thus the candidate that wins the most states also wins the most electoral college votes).

A parliamentary republic also gives lip service to popular sovereignty but it is a farce as the president is not chosen by the people but rather is nominated by the prime minister and rubber stamped by parliament. Indeed, just a few weeks ago, our neighbour Trinidad and Tobago installed Christine Kangaloo as the 7^th president of their republic. It should be noted that while the media kept referring to it as an election, it was really an appointment. Kangaloo’s appointment was not without controversy as the official opposition party was thoroughly opposed to her nomination, but PM Rowley having the majority in parliament just pushed it through anyway. As we all know, the latest announcement from the Ministry of Legal and Constitutional Affairs states that the republican model being considered for Jamaica is similar to the one used in Trinidad. What is point of this stating this? Contrary to the very ideal of popular sovereignty, the head of state is not at all the representative of a sovereign people but rather a creature of the head of government which belies the notion of democratic legitimacy or apolitical neutrality.

I for one am not necessarily here to argue for a presidential type system as that too comes with a host of political problems least of all is gridlock as is exemplified by government shutdowns in the US when the White House and Capitol Hill are controlled by opposing parties. The parliamentary system serves us quite well but such a system is not going to allow a directly elected president. Nor will I ever advocate for one, I am after all, a deeply devout monarchist, one who would have sided with King George III in the American Revolution, supported Shah Mohammed Reza in Iran’s 1979 revolution or backed Emperor Selassie against the Derg regime. My point is this, the very nature of the presidential office in of parliamentary republic is dishonest because it claims a legitimacy that it does not truly possess. Why is monarchy not the same? Simple…monarchy does NOT claim to have democratic legitimacy , the primary exercisers of royal authority (King and G0vernor-General) are not elected, this is known and accepted by all as simply part and parcel of a monarchical system. But what the Crown does do is provide a framework for elected officials to function in the various officers under our constitutional arrangement. As our late Queen once stated “My Job is not to govern, but to ensure that there is a government”. This is a far more honest setup than one in which an unelected president is masking as an elected one simply by virtue of their title.

This was seen not only in Trinidad but also in Barbados where upon being selected in 2021, news items both locally and overseas kept referring to Sandra Mason as the first elected president of Barbados, that too was patently false, the truth is that Mason was nominated and appointed by Mia Mottley after using her supermajority in the House of Assembly to rubberstamp her choice. Incidentally enough 3 years earlier when Mason was appointed as governor-general upon the nomination of PM Freundel Stuart, none made the claim that she was elected because indeed she was not, but change the vice-regal title to a presidential one and replace Queen with parliament and all of a sudden an appointment is being confused for an election. There is clear disparity between what the presidency is purported to be and what it actually is.

This is important as too often the concept of republicanism has often been conflated with what it means to be a democracy. This comes mainly from an influx of an Americanized culture which makes the two somewhat indistinguishable regardless of what Democrats and Republicans will tell you. But in truth democracy refers to above all else, the right of the people to participate in determining their own development and future. Yet it should be noted neither of the two classical forms of government is by nature linked with democracy. Democracy as well as autocracy can exists with or without a monarch. This argument applies not only to democracy but overall development. Last year, The PM told the Prince of Wales (then Duke of Cambridge) that Jamaica would be moving on from the monarchy and become a developed country. This conflation was celebrated by those not paying attention as often republicans love using the monarchy as a scapegoat for why Jamaica is not a first world country. But objectively speaking there is nothing in having a King that would indicate a lack of development. If anyone is holding us back, it is not King Charles or the late Queen Elizabeth but our own corrupt politicians.  The last thing we need is but another politician added to the mix. The Spectator in 1997 puts it this way “The monarchy is a political referee, not a political player, and there is a lot of sense in having a referee different from the players. It lessens the danger that the referee might try to start playing.”

Stay Tuned for Part two

Multipolar Shift

 

 “A new power is rising; Its victory is at hand”

These words were uttered in the 2002 film Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

As epic a line as that may have been for the screen, it is even more epic to see it play out in real time. What is this new power being referred to here?  Is there a shift in the global structure and if so how? Prior to the World Wars, the world order was structured based on the principle of multipolarity in which the world was divided into spheres of influence where great powers competed for dominance. The end of the Second World War saw a change in the order, in which the system moved from a multipolar system to a bipolar one. Once great empires such as Britain or France were reduced and in their place was the rise of two great superpowers i.e. the United States and the Soviet Union. The world entered the Cold War phase which lasted till the early 1990s when the USSR collapsed leaving the USA as the unchecked global hegemon.  This unipolar phase was declared to be the “end of history “where American ideals of capitalism and liberal democracy will reign supreme forever under the guiding hand of the leader of the free world.

This utopian vision however was not to be; in fact, now more than ever we are closer to a dystopia or as Bob Marley puts it, there is still very much “so much trouble in the world”. This of course has led many countries to question the idea once put forward by former President Barack Obama that “America is the only indispensable nation on the Earth”; and with the United States being seen by some losing its touch, many countries are now looking elsewhere for leadership, namely BRICS.

What has caused this shift? Many things actually, but the underlying factor is that too many nations do not see the current world order as working in their favour and therefore are committed to changing it. An important aspect of this change is the process of de-dollarisation. In the wake of the world wars, the United States set up the Bretton Woods system to remake the world economy in its own image with the dollar at its centre. The BRICS countries however are resolved to alter this system as they find that it is simply not in their interest to play by rules of the Washington consensus. The alternative of course is to set up their own system and what better place to start with than trade? One by one BRICS countries have announced their intention to move from trading in dollars to using a new currency as their means of exchange. At present, BRICS members have taken steps to limit the use of the dollar such as India and Brazil announcing that all trade will be conducted in rupees and real respectively meanwhile Saudi Arabia has announced that it will trade with China using the yuan instead the dollar.

And speaking of the Sauds, they have been quite busy as of late thanks to the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed who serving as his father’s prime minister has entered into a state of rapprochement with both Russia and China hence allowing them both to influence new peace deals in West Asia.  President Xi taking advantage of this alliance has managed to do what the US had failed to do in decades which is to facilitate the normalisation of relations between the Saudis and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile President Putin, who was determined not to be outdone decided to act as facilitator of a separate negotiation between Riyadh and the Assad-led regime in Damascus. It must be noted that all of this took place without the involvement of Washington; this however runs contrary to a promise made by Joe Biden to the Arab nations that the United States would not abandon them, yet while the US has for a very long time been most bellicose in its attitude, Beijing and Moscow are willing to facilitate peace.

Russia facilitate peace? You might ask, shouldn’t they be a pariah by now due to the war in Ukraine?  That depends entirely on who you ask. In the West, Putin has been reviled as the incarnation of Hitler and Stalin rolled into one. Due to this characterization, he is all but deemed persona non grata in the West. Xi also has a shaky image in the USA and other Western powers thanks to their media portraying him as a madman anxious to finish what Mao started and conquer Taiwan. Outside of these bubbles however, the view is much different. Survey after survey has found that while Americans consider China, the greatest threat to world peace and Western Europeans name Russia, when it comes to countries in the global south they consider the United States as the greatest threat to world peace and it isn’t hard to see why they would come to this conclusion. Both Latin America and Africa lived under centuries of European colonization yet just as they finally managed to wrestle themselves free of formal colonial rule they found themselves under the yoke of American neo-colonialism. This has led them to see the US not a beacon to look up to for guidance but rather as the great colossus of the north coming to threaten them down with its big stick policy. This perception was demonstrated very recently in the visit of US Vice President Kamala Harris to the African continent. The Biden admin no doubt assumed than sending the first black female VP would resonate with Africans yet this was a grave miscalculation on the part of the White House. As she spoke, it became clear to Africans that Harris did not represent their interest at all, not when she came to lecture them about climate change and LGBT rights. These topics were ones that African leaders had little patience in discussing especially since it implied that she expected to hear them condemn the recent LGBT law passed by Uganda, something which these African countries refused to do.  One cannot help but contrast this high handed behaviour by the US with the approach taken by Russia who had the grace to write off the equivalent of US$20Billion in African debt while making no attempt to intervene in the internal politics of these nations. Is it any wonder then that so many countries are interested in an expansion of the BRICS? That only leaves the question of who will be the first to join, with the obvious frontrunner being Saudi Arabia while Iran, Argentina and Turkey are keen not to be left behind.

And speaking of BRICS one cannot help but contrast it with the other purported challenger to the American economic order i.e. the European Union. Unlike BRICS who are pushing boundaries, the EU finds itself in a great crisis thanks to the boomerang effect of the sanctions they affected against Russia. And if this wasn’t bad enough, the blowing up the Nordstream pipeline made their problem even worse. Who sabotaged the pipeline? There are theories, some more credible than others. But no matter how plausible or implausible these theories are, what is most incredulous of all is that the European members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) decided to NOT support Russia’s motion for an independent investigation into the incident. That by itself is very suspicious as logically speaking, the party who was most affected should have a greater interest than anyone else in uncovering the truth, but instead they decided to all but look the other way. The oddity of this behaviour must be puzzling to anyone who would rightfully question why Europe is behaving so cowardly when their own strategic continental interest is at stake, who are they afraid of angering?

The triumph of American ideals all over the globe are said to represent the end of history, but it’s not really end of history because while Europe might be moving closer to USA’s orbit (as demonstrated by the recent NATO expansion), the rest of the world trends in the opposite direction. This movement stands in direct opposition to the Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), a doctrine which claims that the world is best served when there is only one unchecked superpower. When competition is less, then everybody prospers, an enlightened age of Pax Americana (or so the theory goes). But as any student of business can tell you, monopolies eventually become stagnant and empires that stretch themselves too thin become inefficient. The only true constant in this world is that eventually things must change. There is no system in the world that lasts forever and while no one in their right mind would ever predict that America will decline like Rome, what is clear is that the resurgence of new players on the world stage means that the US is no longer the sole indispensable power, not when countries such as Russia and China are all too eager to return the world to a more equal balance. Hegemonic Unipolarity is a thing of the past; a multipolar world is the way forward and the best way to deal with said change is not to oppose it but embrace it.

 

Ditch the Court, keep the King.

 

The government in keeping with its agenda of reforming the constitution of Jamaica has now formed a constitutional review committee with the stated aim of revising the constitution of Jamaica as it transitions from a monarchical state to a republican one. This, the government claims will be the crowning act (pun intended) of years of work done, going all the way back to a time before Jamaica became independent. There is much and more that has been said about all the proposals put forward for such a revision. The most popular argument that has been put forward is the matter of Jamaica’s sovereignty in having its own institutions. Yet while the committee has been touted itself as being committed to this goal, it has also made statements that are blatantly in contradiction with this aim. This might come as a surprise but while there is an eagerness to replace King Charles III with a president of the government’s choosing (no presidential elections for the people), a member of the review committee also stated in an interview with a local TV station that that there is no immediate plan to move away from the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council and towards a local or regional final appellate court. This turn of events is one that undoubtedly belies any talk whatsoever regarding Jamaican sovereignty.

As far as the independence of Jamaica goes, it should be clear that the JCPC is a far greater hindrance to Jamaican sovereignty than the monarchy.  It sounds strange to the uninitiated,  but contrary to popular myth, the CCJ and a republic do not go hand in hand, they are separate issues and it is very much possible for a country to have its own final appeal court while still maintaining ties to the Crown, this is seen in the cases of countries like Canada and Australia. This government is telling us that we are better doing the opposite, getting a president but still remaining under the Privy Council (which by the way is legally possible). This then leads to the question, if the government is serious then how they can leave our judicial affairs in the hands of an external entity? Unlike His Majesty who outsources all of his executive authority to the Office of the Governor-General [see section 68 (1) and 68 (2) of the constitution for reference], the JCPC does NOT outsource their judicial authority to a local body but has instead taken it upon themselves to overrule the right of Jamaican judges to make rulings and by so doing set judicial precedence from a jurisdiction far from our shores.

We know that for the longest time that Jamaica has been plagued by a crime problem and that there are many who would want to see resumption of the death penalty, even documents as recent as the 2011 Charter of Rights confirms that this is the will of Jamaican people.  Yet the JCPC has constantly found ways to ban the death penalty de facto if they can’t do it de jure. The cases are well known to us, the Dick Trimmingham case, the Lambert Watson case and not to mention the landmark Pratt and Morgan case are all prominent examples that any legal scholar would be aware of.  What is the point being made here?  If sovereignty is the argument of the government for wanting a republic then it falls flat in light of this revelation re the court.

Why does this argument apply to the JCPC but not the monarchy? It is simple, there is no evidence whatsoever that the monarch meddles unduly in politics, in fact all the evidence points to the contrary. At the 2022 CHOGM summit 3 months before his accession, the King (who was then Prince of Wales) stated that every country in the Commonwealth has the right to choose its own form of government and that the Crown will not interfere to keep any country tied against its will. But what is even more interesting is a revelation by noted diplomat Sir Ronald Sanders detailing a conversation between Cuban President Fidel Castro and Antiguan Prime Minister Sir Lester Bird. In the conversation, Bird confided in Castro his plans to make his country a republic thinking to get tacit approval from the revolutionary leader. Fidel however surprised him by telling that since Queen Elizabeth II did not directly meddle in his government then becoming a republic was completely pointless. Castro was of course in the right to assert that a figurehead monarch who does not insert him or herself into politics was no hindrance to sovereignty at all, so if a communist can see the truth of it then how comes our leaders are so blind to that fact?, or is that they know the truth but are counting on the rest of us to be blind and to swallow the kool-aid of whatever they tell us?

Let us be very clear here, Jamaica’s sovereignty is rock solid and irreversible, a president will not raise our standing in the world, because there is no country that disputes our sovereignty, the only people that contest it are internal dissenters with a biased anti-royal agenda. The Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States gives 4 criteria that define a fully independent country, a) fixed geographical territory, b) permanent population, c) a legitimate government capable of exercising all internal authority and conducting external relations and d) recognition by the international community. It would be hard pressed for anyone to make the case that Jamaica does not already posses all 4.  In addition it must be pointed out that every single country whose sovereignty is currently in dispute is already a republic. Prominent among these includes Palestine, whose sovereignty is being disputed by Israel and its allies. Then there is Kosovo, which some states consider a breakaway region from Serbia, while Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still seen as part of Georgia. The most well known case by far is that of Taiwan, which thanks to the one China policy is struggling to gain recognition from majority of the world’s nations including our government here in Jamaica. It goes without saying that Jamaica does not have this problem, which would logically make the republican argument moot.

Some would posit that there is a need to have our own thing instead of sharing a monarch with 14 other countries. Yet those who would make such argument would have no problem sharing a final court of appeal, either the JCPC or the Caribbean Court of Justice, how then can we have a feeling of having our own under such a circumstance? This concern is exacerbated by the fact that unlike becoming a republic, there is no need for a referendum to alter the final court. Given the prior attitude of the government this might be surprising yet it is exactly what was stated in the same interview referenced in the paragraph above. This revelation runs counter to what the current ruling party has said in the past. Back in 2012, the then government tabled a motion in parliament to replace the JCPC with the CCJ (they were of course using it as stepping stone to axe the Queen). The then opposition (now the government) opposed this, claiming that the court cannot be removed without a referendum, now they are saying the exact opposite, which raises 2 questions.

1.       Why did they give the impression that a referendum was required to move to the CCJ if they knew all along that was not the case?;

 and

2. Why are they focused on a republic now which requires a plebiscite when it is far easier to deal with the court where a plebiscite is not needed?

So far the government has only provided more questions and very little answers. If they want sovereignty so bad then why keep the court when it’s rulings have a greater impact on our daily lives? If switching from monarch to president requires a referendum then why not just sort out the court where a 2/3 vote in parliament can seal the deal? This government claims to have its priorities in check but anyone looking at their trajectory should throw cold water on that suggestion. They keep saying that there is an urgency for a republic; urgency from whom?; urgency from where?; what are they not telling us? That argument really doesn’t make sense unless they can show the Jamaican people, the real urgency in this. This is not a bottom-up suggestion but a top-down imposition and as such the arguments fall flat when consider all the moving parts and it is not hard to see that it is far better for the government to ditch the court and keep the King.

Wrong Priorities

What is the top priority of the government of Jamaica? Is it tackling the monster of crime? Is it rebuilding the economy that has been ravaged by two years of COVID-19? Is it working with the financial sector which has been rocked by scandal as of late to ensure that Jamaicans can still trust that theirsavings are secure? or maybe it’s undertaking any one of the numerous problems existing in the health and education sectors? Anyone who made these guesses would be wrong on all counts. Instead the government’s leading focus is to give the boot to King Charles III and replace him with a president of their choosing. You read that right, their choosing. Or did you think  thatwe the people would get to select a president for ourselves? Not at all. The government has made it clear that they intend the mimic the model seen in Trinidad and Barbados.

What is the rationale for such a move? They tell us that doing so would make us independent, that is the narrative that republicans have been spinning for decades now and it sounds reasonable to the ear of the uninitiated.But let us examine that claim for a moment,Will having a president make us more independent than we are now, and if so how? For over 60 years we have been told that Jamaica is an independent nation, for the government to now claim that a republic will complete our independence is tantamount to an admission that they lied to us in 1962, that we did not become truly independent then. Can the Jamaican people truly trust the word of the government now when they all but admitted to not being truthful years ago? Or maybe it is the other way around, maybe the government in 1962 was being honest about our independence which means the current government is trying to pull the wool over our eyes now, I would propose that it is the latter.

We should not gloss over the linguistic games that the elites try to play by claiming that Jamaica is independent but our sovereignty is not complete.  This notion is to be rejected as it is a logical impossibility. Both terms are interchangeable which means that if we became independent in 1962 then we also gained sovereignty in 1962 and any suggestion to the contrary is a smokescreen to hoodwink the Jamaican people. It was even inferred by former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson that we don’t have not full self-determination because our constitution was imposed on us by the United Kingdom. This is a blatant fiction meant to deliberately distort the factsand the record must be set straight. The truth is that the constitution we have now was drafted by a bipartisan committee made up of PNP and JLP members of the time, all Jamaicans. Not a single Englishman was allowed to sit on that committee, not even the colonial governor. And while it is true that the instrument was ratified by the Privy Council in London, that ratification was a rubberstamp and did not change a word of what our constitutional framers had already written. Some would suggest that even this formality would call for a need for the constitution to be repatriated.  This is admittedly a reasonable argument, but constitutional repatriation does not equal a republican form of government. Canada, Australia and New Zealand all had their constitutions repatriated in the 1980s and none of them did so as a republic, that is a model we can safely emulate.

In remarks made in Montego Bay, on January 14 2023, PM Holness indicated that “It is time that Jamaica becomes a republic” this echoed the sentiment made by his predecessor in 2012. There is an unspoken assumption by both major political parties that there is a time for a republic and a therefore a move towards that direction is a move towards progress. This assumption has been filtered down to the rest of society. But where did this assertion come from that republicanism equals progress? Progress to me is anything that improves the livelihood of the people giving them a chance to shape their own destiny. Unless one can prove to me beyond all reasonable doubt that replacing The King with a President is ultimately something that will improve the overall standard of living of the Jamaican people then it by and large can only give the illusion of progress while leaving actual progress in the dust. The truth is, there is not a single objective measure of development that makes a republic superior to a constitutional monarchy. Take one look at the statistics in theHuman Development Index, immediately you will see that monarchies such as Sweden and Australia are just as easily ranked in the top 10 as republics such as Switzerland and Germany this alone should debunk the myth that a republic is any indicator of progress. Nor is there any proof whatsoever that a republic is somehow more democratic than a constitutional monarchy as some would assert. Such a notion is immediately discredited by the Democracy Index which shows no difference between republics and monarchies in the top performers yet the bottom ranks are dominated by countries that are republics.

The progressive nature of republicanism that the elites try to sell us on is ultimately one made up in their heads and propagated to the rest of the population but truth be told the evidence to support this assumption is severely lacking. This is the reason why those who support republicanism appeal to emotioninstead by telling us that having a president will be a source of national pride andfulfil ouraspirations. I submit however that our leaders are less concerned with national pride and more concerned about their own egos, it is in fact not our aspiration that is of interest to them but rather their own. This is patently evident in the obstructions put up by opposition leader Mark Golding to halt the government’s plans. Is Golding an ardent monarchist who is truly living up to his title as the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition? Not at all, Golding is one of the firmest opponents of the Crown, a position he made quite clear when Prince William visited us to mark the Late Queen’s Platinum Jubilee and which he has reiterated upon King Charles’ accession. So what gives? Why is he stalling the very thing he himself has advocated for? The answer is simple, he doesn’t want Holness to get any bragging rights for it, he wants the credit for himself and any other argument put forward by the opposition leader is ahoax to mask this desire.

This of course leads to another question, why should we trust the current leaders of the PNP and JLP with the power to choose a head of state for us when they don’t seem to be able to get their act together here on this matter? And before anyone ask the unspoken question as to why we should trust King Charles instead let me point out that we really don’t. Section 68 (1) of our constitution states “The executive authority of Jamaica is vested in His Majesty” however this is immediately followed up 68 (2) which posits “The executive authority of Jamaica may be exercised on behalf of His Majesty by the Governor-General either directly or through officers subordinate to him.” Hence as we can clearly see a home-grownJamaican already has the constitutional mandate to exercise all the prerogatives of the Crown. So what then is really the difference between a president and a GG? The difference is that a GG is truly neutral because the Crown itself is neutral, a corporation sole. The same cannot be said of a president who is beholden to one party or the other. In addition, an argument that should be gainsaid is the notion that the President represents the people while the Governor-General represents the King. While it is true that the GG does indeed represent His Majesty (not UK’s government as some falsely claim), it is arguably untrue that the President represents the people. In order for the President to represent the people, he/she must be elected by the people, but this is not what the Holness government intends. Instead the plan is to replicate what Mia Mottley did in Barbados by simply having a PM nominate a candidate then having parliament rubberstamp it. This is what they would have us believe is more democratic? This is what would have us believe would bring national pride and complete what they call the “cycle of independence”? The barefaced duplicity of this argument should be clear anyone who is paying close enough attention. So let me state the facts in no uncertain terms. Jamaica is already independent, having a president won’t raise our standing in the world because sovereignty is the highest one can go and we are already there. I am not naïve enough make the claim that having a hereditary monarch or an appointed GG is egalitarian but what I am saying is that anyonewho has even a basic understanding of our system of government knows that this is the case hence it is honest. The same cannot said with having a system where a president is appointed by the PM and parliament, only for them to try and pass of their chosen candidate as the democratic choice of the people simply because we call him Mr. President instead of Your Majesty. This is little more than a fabrication that we the Jamaican people must not allow the two-party duopoly to foist upon us and get away with.

 Last year, the PM told the royals to their face that Jamaica was moving on to fulfil our true destiny as an independent, developed, prosperous country. I posit that we do not need a president or a republic to become any of these things and the fact we have yet to reach that stage isn’t an indictment on the part of The King or on The Late Queen but rather it is the failing ofour political ruling class who were elected to be our servants but too often behave as if they were our masters. Jamaica’s problems are many but they are not insurmountable they can be solved if we would just get our collective act together and prioritise the right things. Like our governor-general, I too share the sentiment that there is nothing that is wrong with Jamaica that cannot be fixed by what is right with Jamaica.

A summit of equals

 Anyone who has been keeping up to date lately with recent events would no doubt be familiar with the current kerfuffle regarding the upcoming Summit of the Americas that is set to take place in the United States. This summit is normally the highest diplomatic level meeting of all members of the Organisation of America States (OAS), an intergovernmental organisation (IGO)  comprising of all sovereign  countries located in the western hemisphere i.e. North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean. International law as stated in the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States declares that all independent countries are to be seen as equally sovereign and treated as such by the international community.  A fact that is clearly lost on the United States who have taken it upon themselves to unilaterally exclude the duly elected presidents of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela over purely political reasons. This as anyone can see is a gross dereliction of decorum as the US has decided to in a most undemocratic fashion make unilateral decisions without consulting the wider membership of the OAS.

For their part, many countries in the region such as Mexico and even St Vincent have responded with rage and shock at this decision. And while the outrage might be justified, the shock should be less so, not if anyone knows the history of USA’s relationship with the rest of the continent. Going as far back as its very foundation in 1776, the then scattered colonies upon declaring independence from Great Britain decided that they were going to take the name of the entire continent for themselves as if to say they were the only “America” when in truth that had previously been the name given to the whole hemisphere. It shouldn’t be surprising that this is their attitude given their doctrine of Manifest Destiny to conquer and annex other lands eventually. Decades later, following the Latin American colonies declaring their own independence from the Iberian kingdoms, the US wasted no time trying to assert its hegemonic dominance over the continent when President James Munroe in his 1823 State of the Union Address declared the Munroe Doctrine in which the US all but declared the rest of the continent as pseudo-tributary states. Since that time, the Doctrine has been the cornerstone of US policy towards its neighbours. Several successive Presidents and Secretaries of State have since cited the Doctrine as justification for violating the rights of its sovereign neighbours. It should be noted that the Munroe Doctrine has absolutely no legitimate standing in international law. This has not stopped Uncle Sam from using it as an excuse to trample on the dignity of its closest neighbours some examples include the Roosevelt Corollary and the Platt Amendment not to mention the numerous invasions in places like Panama, Nicaragua and Grenada while also sponsoring coups in Chile and Paraguay. But most egregious of all has been their despicable treatment of Cuba, included in this, is their sponsoring of the Batista regime and their failed Bay of Pigs invasion. Nothing however could possibly be worse than the embargo they have had in place since 1962. The US can talk all they like about how they refuse to trade with Cuba because of its form of government but that talk is all smoke and mirrors as they have no issue doing business with China which is also run by a communist party. Everyone knows that the US is fond of maintaining Cold War relics (such as NATO) in its orbit and the Cuban embargo is but another one of these. Both the United Nations and the OAS has repeatedly condemned the US for continuing to stifle Cuba but their please have mostly fallen on deaf ears. The US has long made the claim that the original purpose of the embargo was to prevent the Soviet Union from gaining a foothold in the region but the Soviet Union is long dead and its Russian successor certainly isn’t looking to expand into Cuba. Although the opposite isn’t true as the US has been for the last 30 years been using NATO to move closer to Russia, which Ukraine is now paying the price for as we speak. But this is not a discourse on the East but rather on the West.

The US has on many occasion acted in bad faith in dealing with the rest of the Americas, in 1996, Congress passed the Helms-Burton Act which imposed harsh penalties for any third country that chooses to trade with Cuba. This was but another example of US arrogance, taking it upon themselves to restrict the sovereign right of nations in the Americas to trade with whoever they wish. This exercise of extraterritorial jurisdiction like the Munroe Doctrine has no legal standing and independent states should not have to bow to will of another country since we are all equal before the law.

Speaking of law, the same Helms-Burton Act has also sought to define the form of government that Cuba should have, something they have since repeated with Venezuela when they decided to handpick their own candidate by the name of Juan Guido as president. It should be noted that Guido was never voted for by the Venezuelan people, but was merely a Venezuelan politician who the US felt would be more malleable. And while some might make the argument that Nicolas Maduro wasn’t legitimately elected either, the fact is, it is not the place of any outside power to decide who the head of state should be. Even if the country is not a full democracy (which I’m not saying about Venezuela), the US has no business trying to force Cuba or Venezuela to be more “democratic”. Am I saying that these two countries should be classified as democracies or that I am full support of everything their governments do? Not at all, what I am saying is that whether these countries move to democratise or not; it should be up to them to decide. Having the US Impose its will from top-down will not make them more democratic. Democracy, by definition means a government ruled by the will of the people; obviously this means that a country that has its destiny decided by another is not a full democracy (unless the people there voluntarily choose to remain under this sovereign power by a plebiscite).

By intervening in the internal affairs of Cuba or Venezuela, the US demonstrates its own hypocrisy. In their 2016 presidential election cycle, the US made certain accusations against archrival Russia, who they claimed interfered in the election process to ensure an outcome favourable to them. This then demonstrates that they clearly know that interfering in another country’s domestic politics is wrong. Why then do they think, they can handpick who is to be President of Venezuela?, what gives them the right to have a say in what Cuba’s form of government should be? And how is it that a single country gets to decide how an IGO should be run? What is even more interesting is that you only see this kind of hegemonic one-upmanship in organisations that have the US as a member such as the OAS and NATO, whereas this is noticeably absent in bodies such as the Commonwealth or CARICOM from which the US is excluded, it is clear what the common denominator is here. The US constantly likes to berate other countries for their human rights record, using it as justification to impose its will on other countries but as we are all aware by now, the colossus of the North has its own human rights issues to deal with as demonstrated by the amount of mass shootings that constantly takes place there, a feature which doesn’t commonly happen in any other country, regardless of how democratic or autocratic they are.

What’s my point in stating all of this? America sees itself as the exceptional nation, this is what they use as the ethos to justify actions that they themselves would never allow any other country to get away with. But if the reaction of the rest of continent is anything to go by, it is not clear that no one else is willing to buy into the myth of American exceptionalism, nor should they. It would be a gross insult to the dignity of all other nations to let the US alone (as oppose to majority of the OAS) dictate the terms of engagement. Leaders such as Prime Minister Gonsalves of St Vincent and President Obrador of Mexico should be supported by the rest of the grouping in standing up to the bullying tactics of the US. The world is fast moving away from its post-cold war unipolarity and is fast becoming multipolar, with blocs such BRICS and the EU taking a more prominent role on the world stage. The US is rather slow to recognise the changing world order. Yes, it is true that the US is still for now the world’s premier superpower, but how history tells us that declining superpowers don’t fall in a day, (just ask the Russians or the Brits). Not that I am predicting the fall of the US anytime soon but what I am saying is that it cannot expect to hold on to its unilateral superiority indefinitely, sooner or later, it will have to share the top spot with a rival. The sooner they grasp this concept, the better they will be able to treat other countries like equals. This should not be something hard for them to fathom. Their own Declaration of Independence states that all men were created equal; in that same vein they should also recognise that all nations were created equal. This is the fundamental principle that governs international relations and it is this core tenet that the OAS is supposed to represent, in other words you can say that the Summit of the Americas is meant to be a summit of equals

Smith vs. Scotland: My Thoughts.

 

A few weeks ago, the government of Jamaica announced that it was putting forward Foreign Minister Kamina Johnson-Smith as a candidate to succeed Baroness Patricia Scotland as Secretary-General at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda later this year. At first, it seems like a rather standard procedure given that the position is apparently up for election at the next summit. But a few subsequent developments have caused me to wonder if there was more to this than meets the eye.  Normally, the position is only really contested when the incumbent Secretary-General has announced their intention to step down from the position, which would require the election of someone new (as was the case in 2016). This is certainly not the case here as the Baroness has already indicated her interest in serving a second term. It must be noted that there is nothing in the Commonwealth Secretariat’s rules that prevents the Secretary-General from being challenged mid-term but it is simply a matter of convention, not to. But it is not this alone that makes this case interesting but also the narrative surrounding it. For one, the decision to nominate Johnson-Smith has already proven to be controversial, with the Antiguan government accusing Jamaica of trying to divide both CARICOM and the Commonwealth with this move. I note with interest that it was Antigua and not Dominica that came out with this strong condemnation. The reason for this is that Lady Scotland is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and Dominica. Furthermore, the government of Dominica was instrumental in getting many other Commonwealth countries to support her candidacy back in 2016. Antigua and Barbuda on the other hand was not among those who supported this move as their intention was to place their own Sir Ronald Sanders in the position but they were ultimately unsuccessful in this bid. I wonder if their lashing out at the Holness government now has anything to do with the fact they did not get their way last time around and as such would not take kindly to any attempt by Jamaica to succeed where they failed?. Conjecture?, Maybe, but who knows, we will just have to wait and see.

I also note that in the space of a month, Jamaica has received back-to-back state visits, both of which can be connected with the current political row. Ostensibly, both of these visits were connected with the Jamaica 60 celebrations but I would not be surprised if the matter of the minister’s candidacy also came up. As explained earlier, the next CHOGM summit is expected to take place in Rwanda later this year. And only last week, Jamaica played hosts to His Excellency Paul Kagame who as President of Rwanda will also serve as the next Commonwealth Chairman. Is it just coincidental that of all the African leaders to invite, the government choose Kagame?, Not that anything is wrong with that choice, Kagame’s record in transforming Rwanda speaks for itself and were I in the Prime Minister’s position I might have done the same. But from I know about diplomacy, altruism can also take one so far and I would not be surprised, if the visit by Rwanda’s president had anything to do with ensuring that the CHOGM summit would be chaired by someone that would side with our government, it’s rather shrewd.

But if that is the case, we’re not the only one engaging in smart diplomacy here. In a report published by the UK’s Daily Telegraph, it seems that the Boris Johnson government is not very happy with Scotland’s performance and is seeking to have her replaced. It should be noted that PM Johnson is himself the current Commonwealth Chairman and as such has raised serious concerns about the Baroness’ leadership style and also corruption allegations during her tenure. The Telegraph further alleges that when His Royal Highness the Duke of Cambridge visited Jamaica, he not only came to give us the Queen’s salutations on our 60^th anniversary but also had another mandate from Johnson in which he was to open talks with our government about putting forward a candidate to replace Scotland after the Kenyan government withdrew the candidacy of their own Monica Juma.  The Johnson government in Britain seems determined to get rid of Scotland and has even called upon the royal family to aid them in this task. This assertion made by the Telegraph is at first seemingly far-fetched given that convention dictates that the Crown remains above politics. But yet, there might be some truth to this for several reasons.

 First of all, anyone who knows anything about how the Commonwealth works is fully aware how central the monarchy is to its continuation. Going as far back as the first imperial conference of 1887, the royals have been promoting the idea of common kinship ties that binds all the peoples under the rule of the then British Empire. As the 19^th century rolled into the 20^th and the empire was dissolved to make way for a Commonwealth of (equal) Nations, the centrality of the monarchy remained, even as it became clear that British hegemony must end in favour of a more egalitarian ethos. Some might wish promote the idea of a future Commonwealth being more republican, headed by someone not of royal blood, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for this. As recently as the 2018 CHOGM summit, all Commonwealth states (regardless of their domestic form of government) assented that for the foreseeable future, the Queen’s heirs and successors would continue to be Heads of the Commonwealth, this follows on the heels of the Perth Agreement which was signed at the 2011 CHOGM summit, which changed the succession rules to a more gender neutral bent. It’s rather hard to fathom that these countries would now want to make the Commonwealth headship into a pseudo-presidency and as such the logical conclusion one must come to, is that title will continue to have the same monarchical connotations it always has. This makes it highly likely that the Duke himself will one day hold the place that his grandmother does now in the Commonwealth, who better to use as go-between between the Jamaican and British governments?

The second reason, why, this Telegraph’s story might have some credibility is the timing of the announcement. I for one, note that the government’s decision was announced a mere two days after the Cambridge departure, was this time coincidental or was it calculated? It could be deemed as the former, were it not for the fact that Minister Johnson-Smith was the very first government official to greet the royal couple on their arrival at their airport, which is rather different from the standard practice of having either the prime minister or the governor general getting this honour. I can’t help but wonder if in these lengthy chats that Prince William had with either the prime minister or the foreign minister, the matter of the upcoming CHOGM summit was ever discussed (as the telegraph asserts). I also equally wonder if during President Kagame’s visit, the matter was also raised?

 

Again, all of this mere speculation, which can either be proven or disproven when CHOGM is finally concluded. One thing I do take issue with, is the assertion that Jamaica is merely used as a pawn in all this.  I wholeheartedly disagree; as I am of the view that if there is any truth to any of this, that Jamaica would be a player not a pawn in this game of diplomatic chess. It is clear that the government’s ambitions are high and if it sees any opportunity to flex its diplomatic muscle, I say more power to them. I see no reason, why the government should yield to Antigua’s position, given that one can argue that it comes from a standpoint of rank hypocrisy. Nor should they follow Kenya’s example in withdrawing a candidate that was clearly qualified for the post. Instead they chart their own path and if that path means going with an alternate candidate so be it. If it is that other powers e.g. the UK are seemingly in support of removing Scotland like we are, it does not make us pawns in their game but rather it makes us equals, allying together to achieve our mutual interest. Altruism is all fine and dandy, but the same Antigua that now preaches said altruism, was itself not following its own message only a few years ago, yet now they expect us to do so? I think not. I say keep Johnson-Smith in the race, if Scotland’s record stands up to scrutiny, there shouldn’t be a problem. But if it doesn’t why shouldn’t there be an alternative waiting in the wings? This is how international relations work, this is how organisations thrive and in this having someone in the top post with an impeccable record will only help to make the body into a stronger commonwealth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another world war in the offing?

 

Anyone who has the following what has been happening in the Eastern Europe, in the Middle East or in the South Pacific lately would of course find the sabre rattling tendencies rather worrying. Nevertheless, I cannot help but ask the question, is there a global conflict on the horizon? It seems insane right, why would anyone even think of such a thing, two world wars were already two more than anyone wanted, Yet as insane as it might be to speculate on, the world now doesn’t look so different from it how it did prior to the world wars. In fact anyone who studied that period of history will find some eerie similarities.

The first such comparison that will be drawn is the military buildup. Prior to the outbreak of the First World War, Britain and Germany were engaged in a fierce arms race with both sides constantly upgrading their arsenal to the latest technology available at the time. This culminated in the construction of the Dreadnought class battleship by the Royal Navy, which was later copied by its rivals with designs of their own. Similarly today, great powers constantly try to outdo each other to see who has the latest and most potent weapons and are certainly not afraid to show them off. This in and of itself should be worrying enough, but the parties in the arms race didn’t always operate in isolation but rather cooperated in strategic alliances to deter rivals. Is it any different now? Who can forget late last year, when the US, UK and Australia announce the formation of the tripartite pact known as AUKUS?  The whole idea behind this is that it should serve as a deterrent to Chinese ambitions in the South Pacific. This looks oddly similar to the Entente Cordiale that was signed shortly before the First World War to deter German ambition. The Chinese of course didn’t take very kindly to this and respond by calling the three states paranoid. Yet the actions of the PLA (Chinese military) might actually provide justification for such a show of force by AUKUS. China has been known to aggressively increase their naval presence in the South China Sea as of late while their Air Force has been conducting military drills in Taiwanese air space. The PLA has also been seen testing hypersonic missiles which circles the world in orbit, pointing to its deadly accuracy. 

The Western powers are not the only ones wary of China. Japan since World War Two has taken an official position of pacifism but given their geographical closeness to China their current stance is anything but. Japan’s Self Defence force has developed to an advanced stage with air and naval capabilities surpassing anything they have had since WW2. But what is worrying most of all, is the influence of Nippon Kaigi among the Japanese ruling elite which openly calls for Japan to remove article 9 and drop all pretence of pacifism, this would then make them an Asian military powerhouse once again, making the situation in East Asia more tenuous than it already is. Not to be left out, India has also has their own contingency plans for dealing with China as they have recently purchased a series of S-400 missile defence systems from Russia and set them in strategic points that pundits claim are meant to fend off any Chinese attempts at an incursion. 

And speaking of Russia, they are at present an even bigger problem for Western powers than China due to their actions in Ukraine. At present, the whole Eastern front of Europe is on a mere tipping point, with ever growing speculation as to whether or not Russia will invade Ukraine. This is something that the US and it’s allies in NATO are rather wary of as both sides are locked in a standoff. The best hope anyone can have is that all sides can reach a rapprochement before it gets to the point of no return. According to the Russians, NATO expanding into Ukraine would violate an agreement with the Soviet Union that NATO would never expand eastward after the fall of the Iron Curtain. NATO on the other hand contends that no such deal was ever made and that Ukraine is a sovereign state, free to join whatever alliance it likes. This sore point is what leads to the security dilemma we have today as neither side is willing to relent, both feeling threatened by the other. Russia for its part has responded with a massive military buildup on the Ukrainian border. NATO however is not standing idly by as Britain and several other member states are already sending arms to Ukraine while France is openly touting the possibility of a European Army to defend the continent. 

The ambitions of the EU and NATO have hit a major hurdle as unlike Russia, the West is comprised of different countries with competing interests. Whereas French President Emmanuel Macron is all for a common defence force for the continent, new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is of a much different mindset, unlike most of NATO, Germany is not inclined to go to war with Russia as they would have too much to lose if it ever did come to that given that they are one of the biggest recipients of Russian oil and natural gas, which means any stop to that supply would lead to major downturn in Germany’s lead as Europe’s major manufacturing giant. This case scenario, one must admit, would make it different from the two world wars as this time Germany would prefer the role of peacemaker rather than aggressor.

This then lead to the discussion regarding the economic comparisons between the war period and now. It is hardly a secret that following the end of the first war, the world fell into a great depression which was only ended when the second war came about.  The question of whether or not war is good or bad for the economy depends greatly on who is asking. The world economy as we know it now is a disaster, due primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic which has caused a downturn in many major economies with economists predicting that the current depression will hit the levels seen the Great Depression.  History tells us that in the US, while the federal government tried to restart the economy through the “New Deal”, what really got the economy moving again was the manufacturing capacity being expanded in the war and post-war period. The US as it stands now is in a bad place economically and unlike FDR’s “New Deal”, Biden’s “Build Back Better” programme to restart the economy has indefinitely stalled in Congress. It would not be completely far-fetched to state that nobody really wants war ...unless you were part of the Military-Industrial Complex, which some still think is mere conspiracy. Yet, Democratic congresswoman and former Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard has stated point blank that this is exactly what is happening and has referred to some of her colleagues as warmongers for pushing the narrative regarding Russian aggression. The prospect of war profiteering is horrendous to think about and yet with everything going on there are clearly rumblings of a shift in economic and also political power on the global scale, which some say is but one stage in bringing about the new world order

The pandemic of the last two years, has paved the way for some changes in the system, yet the question still remains as to whether or not the world is unipolar or multipolar and where does the power really lie. The idealist in me tends to think that such a question can be settled peacefully but the realist in me would not dare be so naïve, after all as German Chancellor Bismarck once said “It is not through speeches and debates that the questions of the day will be decided but through Iron and Blood”.  The talk of a peaceful rise of China or resurgent Russia is all nice but as history tells us, it is only through war that the global order has been so drastically reset. The Napoleonic wars led to the rise of the concert of Europe and the congress system, the First World War led to fall of several century old empires and the redrawing of the maps of Europe and the Arab world, while World War Two cemented the dominance of US and the USSR, gave us the UN and Brettonwoods systems and most importantly led to decolonization which also redrew the world map. In all the halls of power, there is talk of a Great Reset, one that they say is influenced by COVID-19, but is it farfetched to surmise that this alone is not enough to justify such a reordering of the world system? Look back at World War Two, the economy was changed as much as the politics, yet the Brettonwoods economic system did not rise from anything in the war but from the depression that preceded it, a great reset that looks at changes in the entire geopolitical structure might take a similar approach.

Much of this sounds hyperbolic and I for one am hoping to be dead wrong on this, yet I cannot help but look at the similarities and wonder. At the start of 2022, the UN Security Council (including the P5) promised there would be no nuclear war yet within weeks of this, countries already started making aggressive moves that tips the world closer to the brink. China has continued its aggressive moves in the South Pacific, while Russia does the same at its border with Ukraine border even while France and Britain continue to openly arm Kiev’s government and the US stands in the middle of it all threatening sanctions but doing little else. This resembles what happened in the interwar period when the great powers signed the Briand-Kellog pact to limit armaments only for them to all turn around and violate said agreement. Nor is this aggression limited to P5 nations, North Korea has continued to test their own hypersonic missiles, ignoring UN sanctions,  Iran also continues to pursue it’s own nuclear agenda refusing to renegotiate the nuclear deal meanwhile Saudi Arabia continues to act as foil for Iran in their rivalry for regional domination.

With all this said, the question remains, is the world really heading for another war or is this sabre rattling, just that and nothing more?, US President Teddy Roosevelt once described deterrence as to “Speak softly and carry a big stick”, the problem is, this saying works best in a unipolar world when only one party has said big stick, in this case however, we are seeing the makings of multipolar or even nonpolar world, even that is unsettled and I’m cautiously looking at the world’s geopolitics as it is, wondering if another war is the means they will finally use to settle it.